Jim Dabrowski

Here we are heading into the start of the 2021 football season and somewhat uncharacteristically, I’m not all that optimistic for my Bears and not really excited to watch them this season. Oh sure, I’ll watch every game I can, but overall I’m pretty “meh” about the whole thing.

Like I wrote last time, the Bears have consistently said they will play Justin Fields when he’s “ready” but none of us outside the organization knew what their definition of “ready” was. I think now we know. They think Fields needs to sit as the backup for some amount of regular season games before he can really be a starter. As a result, I don’t have much optimism for success this season—I think it’s going to be roughly the same as the last two.

I think this much is clear: neither Nagy nor Pace are going to be fired after the 2021 season regardless of how it turns out. They have a new quarterback and the organization trusts them to develop and play him when he’s ready. One thing I thought right after they drafted Fields and heard echoed in the Blogosphere and Twitterverse was that, for the Bears, 2021 doesn’t matter. They aren’t playing for anything in 2021, they’re aiming for 2022 and beyond. They have this year to develop Fields, get some new guys on the team, shed some old guys, etc. I lost sight of that during training camp and pre-season with the excitement building around Fields but I think we see now, they aren’t playing for 2021. They’ll never admit that, but that doesn’t make it untrue. 2021 is a bridge year. They aren’t going to tank, but they aren’t exactly going to be in the mix for any sort of playoff appearance. They’re going to be a middle-of-the-road team, with some hope for the future. Like the last two years, they’re going to stumble their way to roughly a 8-9 season but show promise for the future.

The Offense

The offense this year will be OK. The offensive line play will be OK to poor overall leading to a stumbling, inconsistent offense. Behind them, too often Montgomery will continue to have to evade defenders in the backfield and as we saw in previous seasons, when that happens, the run game isn’t effective. Andy Dalton will continue to be what he has been – a middle of the pack quarterback who will make some plays, but who you can’t rely on to win games for you. The result, an offense that’s better than the bottom of the barrel they’ve been the last couple of years, but not much better. They’ll continue to fail to score very many points and will have to rely on their defense to keep them in games.

The Defense

The defense this year will be OK to good. I think their line play will be top-notch but their secondary, especially the corners, will be picked on all season because they just aren’t all that good. As a result, the Bears will be fine stopping the run game, but the good opposing quarterbacks will be able to pick them apart in the quick passing game. There’s not much else to say here. This defense will fine, but not good enough to keep them in games when the offense is incapable of consistently scoring more than 20 points.

All this leads them to another mediocre year. I’m sure by the end of the season we’ll see Justin Fields play and that will get us all excited about 2022 and the potential it brings. “Just wait til next year!” will continue to be our perennial cheer. I’ll still watch and root for them, but honestly, there isn’t much to look forward to this season. But just wait til next year!

JIm

Sunset in Holbrook.

Staying at the Wigwam Motel. But not in one of these unfortunately. 🙁

A cool double rainbow in Holbrook, AZ.

Something I’ve wondered about for a while. Nagy always seemed like a coach who wanted to run “his” offense but lacked the personnel (Trubisky & Co.) to do so. As a result, he got frustrated and gave up at times. Now that Trubisky is on another team, will that coordinator be able to get more out of him than Nagy was? Not sure we’ll ever find out since it’s doubtful Trubisky plays much this season, but he sure looks good against the Bears in preseason game 2 so far.

On the eve of pre-season game 2 and I’m so tired of this. I listen to several Bears podcasts, read many Bears blogs, follow lots of Bears fans on Twitter and I hear non-ending speculation about when Justin Fields will start. Some people point to Nagy saying that Dalton is their starter so therefore Fields won’t get to start week 1. Others hang on Nagy saying they’ll follow the plan they used for Mahomes in Kansas City and therefore they won’t start Fields until the end of this season if at all. All of them then use this to complain about Nagy’s decision as to when he’ll start Fields. The one thing the Bears coaching staff have consistently said is they will start Fields when he’s “ready” but the problem is, no one knows what Nagy’s definition of “ready” is.

Allow me to digress with an analogy. When learning to fly an airplane, you spend some time studying the manuals and learning about the process of flying. You spend some time in simulators so you can get a feel for what it will be like in an actual airplane. Eventually though you’ve done all you can and you just have to get into a plane and fly it. It doesn’t mean you know everything about how to fly a plane. It doesn’t mean you won’t make any mistakes while flying. It doesn’t mean there won’t be a point a which the instructor has to take control of the plane to stop you from crashing. It just means, you’ve learned all you can on the ground and are “ready” to go fly.

I believe Nagy when he says he’ll start Fields whenever he and the coaching staff determine he’s ready to start. They won’t wait for the right soft spot in the schedule. They won’t play Dalton just because they said at some point he’s the starting quarterback. They won’t keep Fields on the bench just because they kept Mahomes on the bench for most of his rookie season. They will start Fields when he’s ready whether that’s week 1, week 18 or somewhere in between. It doesn’t mean Fields will be perfect once he’s out there it just means he’s done all he can in training camp and in meeting rooms and now he has to get out there and play. I personally think it will be much closer to week 1 than to week 18 and I think it’s not unlikely he’ll be the starter in week 1. I will be in LA for the week 1 opener and sure hope I get to see the Justin Fields’ debut as a Chicago Bear and that he plays for them for many years to come.

JIm

I learned jekyll has an admin plugin that lets me create and maintain my site via a web-based GUI. This is my first post using that plugin. Nice.

It’s unconscionable that the richest country in the world is unwilling to provide healthcare to its citizens. We would rather see them beg in the streets or go bankrupt than help them. It’s sad.

Ear worm of the day: King Herod’s Song from Jesus Christ Superstar.

I don’t have a good feeling about a “prediction” per se, instead I think I’m writing more from a “What I want to have happen” perspective. So that’s what follows.

On offense, I want to see the Bears take yet another incremental step toward running a competent offense. We saw some of that these last two weeks. They get into a rhythm, they move the ball well, they just failed to score very many touchdowns. I’d like to see that progress continue and have them put the ball into the endzone more. To do that, they’ll have to slow down Aaron Donald, a tall order given their current offensive line issues, but hopefully they do just enough to put a couple of touchdowns and a couple of field goals on the board.

On defense, I expect them to continue to get better as well. That unit has been getting stronger and stronger and has really shut down opposing teams. I expect they’ll pressure Goff, get him rattled, bottle up the run game enough so their entire offense is unable to effectively perform.

Again, like last week, I’d like to see them get a lead and hold it throughout the game. I doubt the game ever seem like a lock. The Bears have a knack for allowing their opponents to hang in there and keep it exciting right up to the very end. I don’t see that changing in this game. In the end, the Bears come out of this at 6-1 and people have to start admitting that just maybe the 2020 Bears might just be for real while the Rams demonstrate that when they face a good team, they just aren’t able to compete.

Final score
Bears: ~20
Panthers: <=13

Well, that went almost as I expected, except for the offensive line looking awful. I mean, c’mon, the Panthers rush three and still get pressure on the QB? But I digress. The Bears did put up 20+ points and I’m not sure what I was thinking when I thought they’d hold the Panthers to under 10. That’s not very realistic in today’s NFL. However, they did take an early lead and never looked back all while holding their opponent to under 20 points again.

Offensively the Bears need to figure things out. I’m no expert at evaluating game play or play calling but it seems to me Nagy is calling a different game plan with Foles under center than he did with Trubisky. I would actually expect that since they’re different quarterbacks and folks have said that Foles’ style of play more closely resembles the kind of game Nagy likes to run. Foles operates better out of shot-gun where he has a couple of extra moments to survey the field and make his decisions whereas Trubisky seemed to do better under center with play-action and rolling to the outside to make his throws. So it should be a good thing that Nagy has changed his play-calling to match the skills of his starting QB. The problem is the offensive line seems incapable of executing the kind of offensive plays Nagy wants to run and that’s getting them killed. This is feeling like 2019 all over again when everyone said nobody, not Trubisky, not Mongomery, not Cohen could be successful with such poor offensive line performance. What we seem to be seeing now is, it is possible for the QB to be somewhat effective with the o-line unable to execute but this isn’t a strategy that will work for them long-term. I have no idea what the answer is. I don’t think they should go back to Trubisky – he’s shown he’s not capable of running any type of NFL offense, but if the line you have is incapable of executing the kind of offense you want to run, and what they are capable of executing is not what your QB is good at, you have a problem on your hands. I sure hope Nagy can find a way to solve this.

The Bears are at 5-1 and are in first place in the NFC North. They have a tough three game stretch coming up against the Rams, Saints and Titans. I hope they come out of that at least 1-2. After that they have games against some teams they should be able to handle even with their shaky offense. They’re in a good position to make the playoffs, but right now they don’t look like they’d get very far if they do. Until then, I’m going to keep watching and keep being entertained by the 2020 Chicago Bears

Actual Final score
Bears: 23
Panthers: 16

I just don’t have a lot to say this time and I missed last week’s prediction, so first let’s go back a week. I thought the game would be a toss-up leaning toward a Bears loss. I wasn’t convinced the offense would put enough points on the board and Brady would pick apart the middle of the Bears field. Didn’t happen. Bears hung in there and pulled out a win. Good for them.

I think this week we’ll see an improved Bears offense. Might get back to a solid running game but overall we’ll see yet more incremental improvement from Foles and Nagy as they learn each other’s preferences and styles. As a result, I think the Bears finally put up a solid 20+ points with the arrow pointing up for the Bears’ offense as a whole.

On the defense side, I think its apparent that when the offense is struggling to score points, the defense becomes cautious and “safe”. They aren’t nearly as aggressive and just don’t look as good as they actually are. When the offense is firing on all cylinders (or at least some of them), then the defense becomes more confident and aggressive and really starts to shine. So today against the Panthers, the offense is productive and as a result the defense shuts down Carolina completely and looks like the dominant defense people have been expecting.

Final score
Bears: 20+
Panthers: <=10

The Bears come into this game as the hometown underdog but take an early lead and hold on to it throughout the game. Foles looks competent, the defense has a chance to go after Rivers and the end result is a Bears team at 4-0 leading to the national media reassessing the 2020 Bears.

In his first start for Chicago, Foles turns in a solid performance. Nagy continues his balanced attack, but with Foles he has a quarterback who can finally read defenses and make strikes downfield. The Bears are able to hold onto a comfortable 3–10 point lead throughout the game and it never feels in doubt.

With the offense looking competent, the Bears defense is energized and Pagano is able to take more risks and put pressure on Rivers. This results in turnovers but also allows the Colts to score as the Bears continue to be ineffective against the run.

Overall, this ends up being a feel-good game for Chicago and leaves the fans excited for the future.

Final score
Bears: 30+
Falcons: 20s

I couldn’t be happier to have been more wrong. Though you have to admit, I was pretty spot on for the first half of the game, I just never thought Nagy would pull Trubisky mid-game and put in Foles. Thank goodness he did.

With about 10 minutes left in the third quarter, after Trubisky tossed an interception which Atlanta turned into a field goal, the Falcons lead 26-10. I was looking at that thinking, the Bears get a field goal or a touchdown, the Falcons score another touchdown and I’m pretty much spot on. Sadly. But then the unthinkable happened! Foles is put in the game and after a couple of shakey possessions but the defense looking a bit rejuvenated, he puts up 20 points via 3 touchdowns and the Bears win 30-26.

Next up, Colts at Bears. No idea yet what will happen, though I’m feeling a Bears win is in the air.

JIm

This is the week the wheels come off the wagon. The defense doesn’t pressure Matt Ryan and he picks apart the middle of the field with a combination of short passes and a running game that gashes the D. On the other side of the ball, the running game never gets established, the Bears get behind, Nagy throws out the playbook and starts calling too many passing plays Trubisky can’t handle and it ends up in disaster. Fans start crying the season is over, the past 2 weeks are forgotten, there are calls for Pace and Ryan to be fired immediately and demands they trade away all their good players and start the rebuild NOW.

For several years now, the Bears have had difficulty stacking wins and winning the games they should win. As a result, this feels like one of those times when things all fall apart. I’m not pessimistic though. Although it will be a bummer, the team will rally. This one game will not define their season nor start some sort of downward spiral. They’re still a good team.

Final score
Bears: Somewhere in the teens
Falcons: >= 2x whatever the Bears score

Shoulda written this last night but life intervened. Frankly, I wanna say I nailed it. Sure, I didn’t get the score right, but it played out just about how I said. Bears offense started hot, but then trailed off and was frankly up and down the rest of the game. The defense was never really able to put much pressure on Jones and as a result he was able to string together several good drives and kept them in the game right up to the last minute. [As an aside here, I’ve noticed the Bears always seem to be able to keep these damn games close and exciting right up until the end. It’s exciting, but can be nerve-wracking at times.] I think the Bears D caught a big break when Barkley went out injured. Had that not happened, I’m not sure they would have been able to stop them.

As predicted, there was some good in there on both sides of the ball as well as some very concerning things. I think it’s OK to be optimistic at this point. The fan in me wants to believe Trubisky will become more consistent and the defense will stabilize into a regular force to be reconed with. The pessimist in me thinks if this keeps up they’ll once again be an 8-8 team at best because they can’t put together a regular stable performance.

This is what keeps me watching!

JIm

I’m going to wimp out on this one and not actually predict a winner. Allow me to explain.

It’s hard to know this early in the season just what teams are going to be. Especially this season with no training camp and no pre-season, teams are more sloppy and less prepared which makes the prediction business even more difficult than usual. In the case of the Bears and Giants we have two teams both of whom show some inklings of being better at times, while still showing lots of inconsistency and problems they’ve yet to overcome.

The Bears should be able to consistently run the ball, but I’m not convinced that will be enough to score many points. Trubisky should be able to take advantage of what’s considered a weak secondary and make some big plays. However, we’ve not yet seen he can do that on a consistent basis so I expect we’ll see him take plenty of shots down field but have a lot of near misses—and some not so near.

For the Giants, their QB appears to be improving yet is still turnover-prone and it’s easy to rattle him. If the Bears are able to generate significant pass rush against him they should be able to force turnovers but again they’ve not done that consistently for a while now. The Bears’ defensive front and their middle linebackers need to play much better than they did against the Lions if they hope to stop Saquon Barkley from doing them what Peterson did all too often last week.

In the end, I expect this to be a sloppy, inconsistent game for both teams on both sides of the ball, leaving fans able to find hope for the future while still allowing critics to point to the many flaws they’ve yet to overcome. I predict a final score of 13-10 but I honestly can’t say which team will have the 13 and which the 10.

Final Score
Giants: ?
Bears: ?

Wow. Just wow.

For three quarters I was spot-on in my prediction for this game. Trubisky looked totally lost and as bad or worse than he had in any game in 2019. Missing wide open receivers, overthrowing, throwing behind. He sucked. Bad. I seriously believed they should bench him at half and bring in Foles, he was that bad. Defense also sucked. The pass rush was virtually non-existent, Mack was having a hard time beating single blockers, Stafford was having his way throwing the ball and AP was gashing them in the running game.

Finally, at the end of the 3rd quarter Bears get the ball back and I swear to God I texted my brothers and said:

Going totally homer here: OK, now it clicks and Mitch balls out and scores 3 TDS in a row here. Bears win 27-23.

And sure as shit he does that. All of a sudden Trubisky is completing beautiful passes down field and completely took charge of the game. I don’t get it. Had this game ended in a loss, I could easily see them starting Foles next week. As it is, I don’t see how they can not start him.

As usual, the Bears gave me my full 3 hours of excitement and entertainment. Sometimes utterly heart-breaking other times thrilling. Can’t wait til next week!

JIm

Let’s start this off right from the top: Hate to say it, I don’t see the Bears winning this game. The Bears defense isn’t going to dominate as everyone seems to expect and the offense for the first time in recent years will be stymied by the Lions defense.

Mitch Trubisky has played some of his best games vs. the Lions. According to most people who know way more about this than me, this is because under head coach Matt Patricia, the Lions tend not to disguise their coverage or use many stunts when rushing the QB. As a result, what Trubisky sees pre-snap is what he encounters after the play starts. However, this is Patricia’s third year with Detroit and the general consensus is if they don’t improve and make the playoffs this year, both he and their General Manager will be out. Accordingly, Detroit brought in a new Defensive Coordinator and, if everyone I’ve read recognizes the reason Trubisky has been so successful against the Lions is because of how they play their defense, I have to believe the Lions know this too and will finally be prepared for him. I expect them to do things on defense designed to confuse Trubisky and he’ll regress to his 2019 self of stupid indecision and leave the offense struggling.

On the defensive side of the ball for some reason most people I read seem to be discounting the fact that both their edge rushers, Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn are injured with Quinn listed as doubtful. In the first half of last season, Matt Stafford was playing some of the best football of his career before he got injured. Word is this season he’s looking even better and people are expecting him to pick up right where he left off last year. Without Quinn and Mack putting pressure on Stafford, he will have plenty of time to pick apart the Bears defense.

With the offense struggling and the defense unable to pressure Stafford consistently, I see the Bears struggling and eventually losing this game. I hope I’m wrong.

Final score
Bears 17
Lions 24

LOL, learning something every time I post here. I just assumed my “replies” would be threaded somehow. :) It’s kinda fun feeling like a newbie again.

Guess I should have looked at my timeline before I posted! I’ll be honest, I’m not used to being part of an online community. Just a long time lurker on many places. I think I’ll reply to people individually.

Well, lookit that! I can now publish to micro.blog straight from iA Writer. Nice.

Day 2 of microblogging. Next step, figure out how to connect this to jimdab.com, my “real” blog that I almost never use.

Hello world!

My first micro.blog post.

Finally

OK, I’ll be honest, it’s been done for a few weeks now, I’m just finally getting around to writing about it. I won’t bore you with all the details of getting the “final” bill only to have items we had to haggle over. I just want to say when your contractor won’t give you credit for unused material they purchased because it’s open and you ask for the material back since you paid for it, and when you get it back from them, you see the “opened” part consists of them having pulled open 1 of the four flaps on the cover, but none of the material is actually used, you know your contractor is trying to screw you over.

But it’s done. We won’t ever do business with Property Revival again. The final payment was made on September 18, 140 days after the “9 week” project started May 1.

Enough bitching. As promised, here are some before and after pictures of the whole thing. Sit back and enjoy the carousel. We actually like our kitchen a lot and can’t wait to host our big family Thanksgiving dinner.

JIm